College Football Free Picks, Predictions, Odds
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NCAAF EXPERT BETS FOR WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2023
Our VI College Football betting experts have compiled their Best Bets for Wednesday, November 15, 2023.
- Buffalo at Miami-Ohio (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Buffalo vs. Miami-Ohio Best Bet
Defense is the strength of both of these teams. Miami has been solid all season ranking in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed along with ranking 12th giving up just 17 PPG.
They have held 7 straight opponents to 21 points or fewer and the only 2 teams that reached 21 points during that stretch were Toledo & WMU, the top 2 teams in the MAC in total offense.
In their other 4 conference games (minus Toledo & WMU) the Redhawks have allowed a total of 19 points or less than 5 PPG.
We don't look for Buffalo's offense to do much of anything on Wednesday night. Their only real successful offensive performance in MAC play this season was vs CMU who has the worst defense in the league.
In their other 5 conference games, the Bulls have averaged only 14.8 PPG. Over the last 2 weeks, Buffalo has faced Toledo and Ohio, the other 2 highest rated defenses in the conference along with Miami, and they scored 13 & 10 points in those games.
For the season Buffalo ranks 109th in total offense and 128th in YPP. The Bulls defense struggled their first few games of the season, but they've played very well over the last few months.
Since MAC play started, the Bulls have allowed an average of just 17 PPG, 3rd best in the conference, and only Toledo (by far the best offense in the MAC) topped 24 points.
The Redhawks offense is very slow paced (131st in seconds per play) and with backup QB Smith now under center, they've relied very heavily on the run which eats clock.
In Smith's 2 starts, he's attempted a TOTAL of 28 passes while running the ball 86 times. The Redhawks offense ranks 97th in total offense at 345 YPG, however over their last 2 games since Smith has been the QB, they've averaged only 263 total yards.
We'd be surprised if either team topped 21 points here so Under is our recommendation.
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