NFL Weekly Free Picks, Predictions, Odds

Buffalo has slipped to 5-4 yet is still commanding pricing like one of the elite teams in the AFC.

Buffalo has only one win over a winning team and since blasting Miami 48-20 in Week 4, the Bills have not scored more than 25 points in a game and were soundly defeated by the best two teams they faced, Jacksonville and Cincinnati.

The Bills also inexplicably lost to the Patriots and struggled to pull away in home games vs. the Giants and Buccaneers.

Buffalo has really struggled to run the ball consistently as the offense has leaned on Josh Allen to make plays, but he continues to be a turnover risk with a league-leading nine interceptions this season, including posting five straight games with at least one turnover.

Denver had a humiliating start to the season, but this is a team still in a major transition season, after going through a coaching transition last season as well.

It has understandably taken some time for Sean Payton to straighten things out, but the Broncos have now played well in three straight games, allowing a combined total of just 45 points and beating the Packers and Chiefs in the past two games.

The Broncos aren't a great offensive team, but the roster is healthy right now while coming off a bye week. Jevonte Williams has been an effective rushing threat in the three games since his return while Russell Wilson is playing at a much higher level than last season, with his completion percentage improved by six percent while only having four interceptions in 233 pass attempts.

The past four games for the Broncos have all come against defenses ranking in the league's top six in yards per play allowed as the offensive potential for the Broncos is likely better than the season results show.

Denver is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of seven or more points the past two seasons with Wilson while Buffalo is just 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games as a home favorite despite many having a selective memory for the occasional Bills blowout win.

With all the injuries on defense, the Bills no longer look like the AFC contender of the past few seasons and shouldn't be valued as such.

Even with injuries, the demise of the Bills defense is overrated. They have allowed 20 ppg over their past four games. We look for them to have a strong performance in this game.

Yes, primetime games have been very heavy toward Unders this season. But that has really been the case for Denver for a few years. The Broncos are 1-13 OU since December 2018 in primetime games.

And while there is some overlap, this also applies to the last few seasons of Russell Wilson before reaching Denver. Wilson is 0-9-1 OU since November 2020 in primetime games.

Denver is coming off a 24-9 win over Kansas City last game. The Broncos are 0-18 OU since December 2017 when the total is over 36 and they won by 7+ points last game.

They forced five turnovers in that game and were +4 in turnover margin. Teams that won by 5-23 points last game while winning the turnover battle by at least +3 are a play under. Also, teams off wins as at least 3-point dogs where they forced 4+ turnovers are 124-167 OU.

In that win, Denver ran the ball 40 times and ran it 19 times. Teams won by more than three points last game while running the ball at least 35 times and throwing the ball less than 25 times are 383-478 OU.

KC meanwhile had just 16 rushes. Since 2015, teams that ran the ball more than 20 times more than their opponent last game are 126-159 OU.

Buffalo enters this game having failed to cover 5 straight games. Teams that have not covered in any of their last five games dating back to last season are a play under.

But they are still 5-4 on the season. Teams that are at least .500 on the season but have failed to cover 4 straight games are 81-116 OU.

Buffalo lost last week, 24-18 to Cincinnati. They had 23:22 time of possession in the loss. The Bills are 0-8 OU since November 26, 2017 since when they had less than 24:20 time of possession last game.

Buffalo is still 5th in the league averaging 26.7 ppg. Denver is still last in the league allowing 28.3 ppg.

In week three and beyond, teams that are averaging at least three points per game more than the league average and are facing a team are facing a team allowed at least six points per game more than league average are 132-199 OU.