NFL Player Prop Picks – Monday Night Football
The VegasInsider NFL Player Prop Picks are now available for the 2023-24 NFL regular season and for this year's campaign, we're leaning on our friends at RotoGrinders.
Check back each week as the stable of RG experts will be providing their best player props and picks all season. Get more of our NFL free picks for the coming week's games.
NFL PLAYER PROP BETS - MONDAY, NOVEMBER 13
The NFL Player Prop Bets will come to close in Week 10 as we're focusing on the Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Broncos:
- Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET)
For the above matchup, our experts are focused on these players:
- Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy
- Bills QB Josh Allen
Jeudy has only gone over this number twice this entire season, one of which was in the Miami blowout when they were in catch-up mode. Buffalo has been very good against wide receivers, allowing the 9th-fewest receiving yards to wideouts. And Jeudy's season-high in targets is 7, so he's not seeing a ton of volume. With this looking like a closer game (and a ton of the money backing Denver at +7), I'm expecting the Broncos to find much more success on the ground and not need to air it out as much. Let's go under here on Jeudy.
It's getting to that time of year where the wind is going to be a factor in Buffalo. The current forecast projects 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH. While that's not a massive number, it will affect Allen's ability to throw. Allen and the Buffalo offense haven't been the same this season and have yet to really click, outside of one game against Miami. Allen may be averaging around this number on the season, but he's only hit the over in 3 out of 9 games and just had a few outlier games. Additionally, the Broncos defense is one that's easier to attack on the ground and has been much better in recent weeks, giving up no more than 24 points in any of the last 3 games, 2 of which were against the Chiefs. I would hit this number all the way down to 265.5.
Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change
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What Are NFL Prop Bets?
NFL props bets can be anything from how many passing yards a QB will throw for to how many sacks a player might have. The options are endless, and this makes it so you can bet with or against a certain player instead of betting on the whole team.
Players props can have different edges compared to traditional bets. If there is a matchup you like on Stefon Diggs, then bet on his under. Many people like to look at the offensive vs. defensive matchup to determine what props they are going to wager on.
Players are also more susceptible to trends. If a player has been dropping the ball, expect that player to continue those actions until you get corrected.
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Different Types Of NFL Prop Bets
Touchdown Scorer
A common NFL prop bet is who will score a touchdown in a given game. The shortened version you might see is ATTD. This stands for anytime touchdown scorer. Winning this bet is pretty simple. The player you bet on has to score a touchdown. This can get confusing when you see quarterbacks listed as touchdown scorers.
Looking at the lines, you might see something like this listed on a given Sunday:
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown: +350
When reading touchdown props for quarterbacks, unless stated as a passing touchdown prop, this means Josh Allen will have to score a rushing or receiving touchdown. If he throws for three touchdowns, this bet would still be graded as a loser. Make sure to find the correct prop you are looking for on your preferred sportsbook.
Rushing/Receiving/Passing Yards
Another common type of NFL prop is rushing, receiving, and passing yards props. These are betting on a specific player to either go over or under a certain number of yards. These types of bets are available to all players, so make sure you find the correct prop for the player you want.
Nick Chubb might have the option for rushing and receiving yards, so make sure to select exactly what you want.
Below are a couple different player props that you will see listed:
- Tyreek Hill Over 88.5 Receiving Yards
- Joe Mixon Over 55 Rushing Yards
- Lamar Jackson Under 299.5 Passing Yards
These types of wagers are commonly used on fantasy apps such as PrizePicks, which is widely available in states sports betting isn't always legal since you're not betting on the outcome of games.
Team Props
Team props are when you remove the individual from the wager. Examples of team props might be total wins in a season or total points in a game. There are also more obscure props, such as the examples below:
- New York Jets: Total Team Field Goals Over/Under 2.5
- Green Bay Packers: Team Total Punts Over/Under 5
- Detroit Lions: Team Total Points Over/Under 20.5
Team props are usually how the team will perform, not on the individual level.
Bankroll Management
In the space of gambling and sports betting as a whole, bankroll management is a controversial topic. NFL props are easy to get carried away with, so keep in mind you should always bet within your means and set aside money you are comfortable losing. If you are using any Fantasy apps, set deposit limits for yourself.
A good limit would be 1% of your total worth. Take what you have and set limits you can manage. Do not chase bets or bet beyond your means.
Check out the best sportsbook bonus offers before placing your bets on NFL props, and sign up with VI’s bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets!