English Premier League Matchday 12 Free Picks
Matchday 12 of the Premier League features 10 matches that begin on Saturday November 11, 2023 and conclude on Sunday November 12, 2023.
Listed below are the three-way soccer betting odds and over-under totals for the matches per bet365.
Premier League Matchday 12 Odds
I'm rolling with 5 Best Bets for the weekend, which are listed below.
Good Luck mates!
EPL Matchday 12 Free Picks
Sunday
Aston Villa Win & Over 2.5 Goals (+120)
Chelsea-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals (+112)
Saturday
Crystal Palace-Everton - BTS No (-109)
Manchester United-Luton - BTS & Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
Newcastle United to Win to Nil (+225)
ML - Moneyline
BTS - Both Teams to Score
Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change
Aston Villa vs. Fulham
- Date: Sunday, November 12
- Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Villa Park
- Location: Birmingham, England
Best Bet: Aston Villa win and Over 2.5 goals (+120)
A list of Aston Villa’s home league results this season is realistically all the justification you need to at least consider taking this bet: 4-0, 3-1, 6-1, 4-1 and 3-1. It also had a 3-1 victory at Burnley, another side who start the match week in the bottom six along with Fulham.
The argument against this selection is Marco Silva’s side being top of the Premier League’s ‘Under 2.5 goals’ table for 2023/24. But Fulham has conceded an average of three big chances per away game and four-or-more in half of its matches on the road.
With Villa on a roll at home and Ollie Watkins in form, another high scoring win at Villa Park looks on the cards.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City
- Date: Sunday, November 12
- Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Stamford Bridge
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals (+112)
These sides met in the 2021 Champions League final, with Chelsea running out 1-0 winners. It was the first of seven consecutive games for the Blues against Manchester City in which one of the sides failed to score, and for the last six it has been the Londoners who have suffered that fate.
It would be no surprise if that occurred again here. A bet on ‘Both Teams to Score: No’ is +105 at the time of writing, and looks a decent choice. But the odds are a touch better for Under 2.5 Goals, and five of those last seven clashes saw just one goal with another only featuring two.
As Chelsea struggled early to score against a nine-man Tottenham team with a suicidally high defensive line, they’re going to find it very tough against the best defense in the Premier League.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton
- Date: Saturday, November 11
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Selhurst Park
- Location: London, England
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score: No (-109)
A meeting between the managerial minds of Roy Hodgson and Sean Dyche is never likely to be much fun for anyone. Their last two meetings ended goalless (including the corresponding fixture from last season), only two of their nine clashes saw at least three goals and both teams scored in just one.
It’s a similar picture for Crystal Palace against Everton at Selhurst Park no matter who is in charge, with three 0-0s in the last six. With the sides also joint bottom of the Premier League for matches in which both teams scored, backing at least one to draw a blank feels like money in the bank.
Manchester United vs. Luton
- Date: Saturday, November 11
- Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
- Venue: Old Trafford
- Location: Manchester, England
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (+100)
The underlying expected goal data for 2023/24 suggests a bet on Luton to avoid defeat is a value play, and the odds are great (+285).
But as poor as Manchester United have been at times, it still feels a big ask for a newly promoted side with a single win and three draws from 11 games to get something at Old Trafford. Erik ten Hag’s side has a perfect five wins out of five from matches this season against teams starting the weekend in the bottom eight.
There should be goals though. Only three Premier League clubs have seen both teams score in more matches than Luton this term and only Bournemouth has had more on the road pay out on over 2.5 goals.
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle
- Date: Saturday, November 11
- Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Vitality Stadium
- Location: Bournemouth, England
Best Bet: Newcastle to win to nil (+225)
In the opening match week of the season, Newcastle beat Aston Villa 5-1, with the match 1-1 after just 11 minutes. It is an outlier for the Magpies’ 2023/24 Premier League campaign.
The ten games since break down into two perfect halves. If Newcastle kept a clean sheet it won, if it conceded a goal then it dropped points. No team in the division has won more games to nil this season, with Arsenal also having five such victories.
While Bournemouth has picked up a little lately, the three teams it has hosted from the current top half of the table all shut it out at the Vitality Stadium. Newcastle should too, and from there a win looks inevitable.
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