Armed Forces Bowl Betting 2023 Odds, Predictions, Preview

The Air Force Falcons defeated the Baylor Bears 30-15 in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl.

Check out last year's coverage here below and tune back in with us soon for the 2023 Armed Forces Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions.

Troy Calhoun is looking to lead the Air Force Falcons to their third straight (non-COVID shortened) 10-win season. Calhoun is one of the longest tenured coaches in college football, and he continues to keep this program competitive with his take on the option.

However, the Falcons are underdogs by the college football betting odds against the 6-6 Baylor Bears as Dave Aranda is one of the smartest defensive minds in the game.

These teams will meet in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Thursday, December 22, 2022, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Prediction

The oddsmakers expect the Armed Forces Bowl to be one of the lowest scoring games during bowl season. The Air Force Falcons have one of the best defenses in the country, and Dave Aranda will have had a few weeks to scheme up ways to stop this offense.

Weather will hurt both offenses too as temperatures are supposed to be in the high 10s with consistent winds of at least 20 MPH, so the Under is the play.

Score Prediction: Baylor 20 Air Force 17
Best Bet: Under 43.5

Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Odds

Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Resources

• Date: Thursday, December 22, 2022
• TV-Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
• Location: Fort Worth, Texas
• Expert Picks

Updated on 11/15/2023

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Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Blake Shapen got off to a strong start this season, rewarding Dave Aranda for his decision to go with the young signal caller over Gerry Bohanon. Shapen threw seven touchdowns against one interception in September as the Bears were 3-1 through the first third of the season. However, he threw nine touchdowns and nine interceptions over Baylor’s last eight games, and he threw a pick in four straight games to end the year. Shapen wasn’t the same type of mobile threat as Bohanon, so that hurt this team’s ability to move the chains.

Baylor was able to have a lot of success on the ground. The Bears had three separate running backs that averaged at least 5.0 YPC. Freshman Richard Reese led the team with 962 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, and Craig Williams and Qualan Jones have had their moments too.

Surprisingly, the Bears ranked 63rd in Defensive SP+ this season. Baylor allowed 28.1 PPG and 382.5 YPG during the regular season, and the Bears fell apart during the final month of the campaign. They surrendered at least 29 points in each of their last four games. Siaki Ika was a First Team All-Big 12 selection up front, and linebacker Dillon Doyle was a disruptor.

Air Force Falcons Betting Analysis

The Falcons run the ball more than any other team in the country. Air Force runs the ball on 88.6% of its plays, so it’s no surprise that this team leads the nation in rushing yards with 312.9 YPG on the ground. MWC Offensive Player of the Year Brad Roberts was one of the top running backs in the country with 1,612 yards (5.2 YPC) and 15 touchdowns. John Lee Eldridge III was extremely dangerous earlier in the season and ran for 701 yards (7.9 YPC) and four touchdowns, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels accumulated 614 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) with seven TDs.

Daniels didn’t throw the ball much, and he wasn’t very efficient. That’s typical of what we see with option quarterbacks, so the good news is that Daniels wasn’t an abject disaster. He is completing 36 of 76 passes for 733 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. David Cormier is by far the top target with 13 receptions for 384 yards and four TDs.

Air Force boasts one of the best defenses in the nation. The Falcons rank 9th in Defensive SP+, and they are first in scoring defense (12.9 PPG) and first in total defense (241.8 YPG). Linebacker Vince Sanford is a two-time all-conference selection and leads the team with 5.5 sacks. Safety Trey Taylor earned All-MWC honors too and was second on the team in tackles.

Armed Forces Bowl Best Bets

Armed Forces Bowl History

The Armed Forces Bowl bowl began in 2003 and is played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. A variety of conferences have owned tie-ins to this bowl since its inception, as schools from the American Athletic Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, and Mountain West Conference have signed agreements to play in this game. 

This bowl was formerly named the PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl, the Fort Worth Bowl, and the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. 

In five of the first six years of this bowl, the favorite won and covered. The underdogs did strike back with a 7-3 ATS run but the 'chalk' bounced back in 2019 as Tulane stifled Southern Mississippi 30-13 as a seven-point favorite. 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs of the SEC restored order for the favorites, picking up a 28-26 win over Tulsa of the AAC as the Over comfortably connected. The Over is now 6-1 across the past seven installments of this bowl game. 

The 2021 installment was an entertaining affair, as Army picked up a 41-yard field goal at the buzzer to top Missouri 24-22 in a seesaw affair. The Under result snapped a 6-1 run by the Over, and the underdog snapped a 3-0 ATS run by favorites.