New Mexico Bowl Betting 2023 Odds, Predictions, Preview

The BYU Cougars defeated the SMU Mustangs 24-23 in the 2022 New Mexico Bowl.

Check out last year's coverage here below and tune back in with us soon for the 2023 New Mexico Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions.

The only previous meeting between the BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs in bowl season resulted in one of the greatest bowl games of all-time.

SMU led BYU 45-25 in the 1980 Holiday Bowl with under three minutes left to play when the Cougars pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in college football history. BYU scored 21 points in the last two-and-a-half minutes, capped off by Jim McMahon finding Clay Brown in the end zone on a Hail Mary as time expired to give the Cougars their first bowl victory in program history.

That will provide an interesting backdrop for the New Mexico Bowl that will be played on Saturday, December 17, 2022, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC from University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

BYU Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Prediction

It looks like Jaren Hall will be unable to suit up for the BYU Cougars in the New Mexico Bowl. At a press conference on Wednesday, head coach Kalani Sitake announced that we are unlikely to see Hall return from a foot injury that he sustained in the season finale against Stanford.

Still, BYU should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad SMU defense, so the Cougars stand a good chance of pulling off the upset behind a crowd that will be pulling for them the whole way.

Score Prediction: BYU 38 SMU 34
Best Bet: BYU +4

BYU Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Odds

BYU Cougars vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Resources

• Date: Saturday, December 17, 2022
• TV-Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: University Stadium
• Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
• Expert Picks

BYU Cougars Betting Analysis

Boise State transfer Cade Fennegan looks set to be the starting quarterback for BYU on Saturday with Hall injured. Jacob Conover was the backup all season but decided to transfer to Arizona State a few weeks ago. That clears the way for Fennegan to start, even though interestingly enough, his only previous game action was against BYU when he was with Boise State back in 2020.

It sounds like BYU will have its top two receivers available. Puka Nacua and Keanu Hill have been dealing with injuries throughout the season, but they seem likely to suit up for the New Mexico Bowl this weekend. The Cougars run the ball very well too, averaging 5.3 YPC as a team. Senior running back Christopher Brooks has run for 729 yards and is averaging 6.6 YPC, and he has been excellent in BYU’s last two games.

The Cougars rank 103rd in Defensive SP+. They have struggled against the run and the pass, and they don’t create a lot of havoc plays. To make matters worse, they won’t have linebackers Keenan Pili and Payton Wilgar this week, so that could affect things at the second level. BYU doesn’t have a defensive coordinator either as former Weber State head coach Jay Hill won’t take over on this side of the ball until after the bowl game.

SMU Mustangs Betting Analysis

Tanner Mordecai continued to thrive at SMU this season even after Sonny Dykes left for TCU. Mordecai was one of the best quarterbacks in the AAC, completing 64.3% of his passes for 3,306 yards with 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Unfortunately, he won’t have his best weapon in this game though as FIrst Team All-AAC wide receiver Rashee Rice has been ruled out with a broken toe. Jordan Kerley will be the top target and caught 31 passes for 538 yards and five touchdowns.

SMU doesn’t have a great ground game, as the Mustangs largely run the ball to keep defenses honest so that Mordecai can have success through the air. They are averaging just 4.2 YPC, and Tyler Lavine is the leading rusher with 551 yards and nine touchdowns. Justin Osborne was a Second Team All-AAC selection upon the offensive line and will see a lot of runs his way.

The Mustangs have one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 123rd in Defensive SP+, and they really struggle to stop the run. Opponents are averaging 5.2 YPC and 212.4 YPG on the ground against this front seven despite the presence of two-time Second Team All-AAC defensive lineman Elijah Chatman. We saw Tulane run the ball 42 times for 310 yards and five touchdowns against SMU in their penultimate regular season game, so BYU could have a field day.

New Mexico Bowl Best Bets

New Mexico Bowl History

The New Mexico bowl began in 2006 and the matchup currently features schools from the Mountain West and Conference USA. The game takes place at University Stadium from Albuquerque, New Mexico.

In its 12-year existence, bettors have watched the underdogs go 9-3 against the spread in this bowl and that includes six outright victories. The owner of the biggest upset was Wyoming, who defeated Fresno State 35-28 as a 10 ½-point underdog in 2006. This bowl has watched the ‘over’ cash in eight of the past 10 years. 

The 2013 installment is still talked about as the craziest New Mexico bowl ending as Colorado State pulled off an improbable comeback and captured a 48-45 win over Washington State. The Rams trailed by 15 with less than five minutes left in the game before closing with 18 unanswered points. Colorado State was unable to duplicate that success in 2017, dropping a 31-28 decision to Marshall.

The Mountain West came through with a pair of blowouts in 2018 and 2019 as Utah State destroyed North Texas in '18 and San Diego State rolled past Central Michigan in '19. Both the Aggies and Aztecs were favored in those games, marking the first time in New Mexico Bowl history that the chalk covered in back-to-back seasons.

Hawaii carried the banner for the Mountain West with a 28-14 victory over Houston, giving the conference three straight victories in the bowl. The win as 7-point underdogs snapped a two-game streak by favorites.

Fresno State posted a win for the Mountain West for the fourth consecutive season in the New Mexico Bowl, but UTEP of Conference USA ended up grabbing the cover in a 31-24 loss as 13-point underdogs. The total officially ended up 'over' at most shops, with a close of 54.5.

For more information on bowl games, check out our College Football Bowl Central