Holiday Bowl Betting 2023 Odds, Predictions, Preview

The Oregon Ducks defeated the Tar Heels 28-27 in the 2022 Holiday Bowl.

Check out last year's coverage here below and tune back in with us soon for the 2023 Holiday Bowl Odds, Picks and Predictions.

Dan Lanning had a great first full recruiting class at the University of Oregon. The Ducks currently have the 11th ranked class per 247 Sports, as Lanning flipped multiple blue chip prospects on National Signing Day.

That has fans and analysts excited about the future of the program, and that has played a part in Oregon being a double-digit favorite by the CFB betting odds against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl.

The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel cross-country to take on the Oregon Ducks in the Holiday Bowl on Wednesday, December 28, 2022, at 8 p.m. ET on FOX from Petco Park in San Diego, California.

UNC Tar Heels vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Prediction

Drake Maye’s decision to return to North Carolina means that there is a lot of value on the Tar Heels to cover this lofty spread. Oregon was impressive this season and finished with a 9-3 record, but the defense let this program down at the end of the year. They surrendered 37 points to Washington and 38 points to Oregon State in November, and North Carolina can put up some numbers on this defense.

Score Prediction: Oregon 38 North Carolina 30
Best Bet: North Carolina +13

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Odds

Holiday Bowl Betting Resources

• Date: Wednesday, December 28, 2022
• TV-Time: FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Petco Park
• Location: San Diego, California
• Expert Picks

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis

After flirting with a few schools in the transfer portal, Drake Maye decided to return to Chapel Hill for another season with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Maye was a First Team All-ACC selection after completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,115 yards (8.5 YPA) with 35 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2022. He was also the leading rusher for the Tar Heels with 653 yards (3.8 YPC) and seven touchdowns. Maye struggled over his last three starts though, completing under 60% of his passes with a touchdown and four picks in three consecutive losses for UNC.

Standout receiver Josh Downs will be unavailable after deciding to opt out in order to concentrate on the NFL Draft. Downs was a First Team All-ACC pick and had 94 receptions for 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns. Antoine Green will look to take on more of a role after averaging 18.6 YPR with seven touchdown receptions, and tight ends Bryson Nesbit and Kamari Morales are threats on short yardage and in the red zone. Elijah Green and Omarion Hampton are averaging 4.5 YPC each as the top two running backs.

This North Carolina defense is ranked 106th in SP+. The Tar Heels rank outside the top 100 in interception rate and sack rate, so Bo Nix has the potential to explode on Wednesday night. This front seven took some hits to its depth with backups exiting via the transfer portal, but the real problem is in the secondary. Tony Grimes, Storm Duck, and Cam’Ron Kelly all saw a lot of action, and all three players entered the transfer portal.

Oregon Ducks Betting Analysis

To the surprise of some, Bo Nix announced that he will be playing in the Holiday Bowl and returning to Oregon for his final year of eligibility in 2023. Nix was a mediocre quarterback in three seasons at Auburn, but he was able to rejuvenate his career by moving out west. He completed 71.5% of his passes for 3,389 yards (8.9 YPA) with 27 touchdowns and six interceptions this season as his excellent offensive line gave him time and only allowed Nix to be sacked four times. Nix ended up being the third leading rusher on the Ducks too with 504 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Oregon ranked 5th in Offensive SP+ as the Ducks had a lot of success on the ground. Bucky Irving led the team with 906 yards (6.3 YPC) and three touchdowns, while Noah Whittington ran for 754 yards (5.9 YPC) and five TDs. Troy Franklin was the big play threat at receiver with 56 receptions for 867 yards and eight touchdowns, and Kris Hutson and Chase Cota are the underneath targets. T.J. Bass and Alex Forsyth were both First Team All-PAC 12 offensive linemen, and they are supposed to suit up for this game.

The Ducks have a middle-of-the-pack defense. They have really struggled to get after the quarterback without Kayvon Thibodeaux though, ranking 129th nationally in sack rate. To make matters worse, their top two defenders will be opting out of this game in order to focus on the NFL Draft. First Team All-PAC 12 cornerback Christian Gonzalez led the team with seven passes defensed and four interceptions, while Second Team All-PAC 12 linebacker Noah Sewell was a playmaker.

Holiday Bowl History

The Holiday Bowl began in 1978 and the matchup currently features schools from the Pac-12 and Big 10, who took over the bowl tie-in from the Big 12. The game takes place at Qualcomm Stadium Stadium from San Diego, California. 

The Pac-12 has lost seven of its nine appearances in this bowl game. Utah got off to a great start in the 2018 installment of the game, but Northwestern erased a 20-3 halftime deficit with a 28-point third quarter to win 31-20 as the 'over' connected. Iowa kept up the Pac-12's recent woes when they absolutely hammered USC by a 49-24 score as short 'dogs.

The COVID-19 global pandemic wiped out the 2020 installment of this game. The game was expected to return on Dec. 28, 2021, with UCLA of the Pac-12 facing NC State of the ACC. However, mere hours before the Holiday Bowl was to kick off at Petco Park, the Bruins pulled out of the game due to reported COVID issues within its program.